Super Tuesday

Hype, spin, repeat.

(It's the delegates.)

It's the economy.
It's globalization.

It's militant "Islamo fascism." Is that even a word?

It's about race.
It's not about race.
It's post-race, but it's about healing the trauma of 1968.

It's time for change.
It's time for experience.

It's time for a true conservative.
It's time for a uniter.

It's time to help the endangered middle class.
It's time to make Bush tax cuts permanent.

It's about ending the war and bringing troops home.
It's about staying in Iraq for one hundred years if we have to.

It's about the youth vote, the Hispanic vote, the black vote, the women's vote.
What about the white men?

It's about coming together as a country and making our voices heard.
(It's about the delegates.)

Looking for the upside -- reader forum on Michigan's economy

Well, folks, it's a little hard to see the positive today considering these tidbits.

Ford may not refill its ranks
From the Free Press: "As Ford Motor Co. begins offering voluntary buyouts and early-retirement packages to its 54,000 UAW hourly workers -- and continues trimming its salaried ranks -- CEO Alan Mulally said it's not clear that the departing workers will be replaced in these tough economic times."

Chrysler offers buyouts to hourly workers in Detroit
The New York Times reports that this offer "means that nearly all hourly automotive workers in Michigan now have the option to leave their job this year. Earlier this month, the Ford Motor Company began a second round of companywide buyouts and General Motors extended buyout offers to about half of its work force."

We're going to need massive programs to help workers retool, retrain, and go back to school. We're going to need more emergency social services, food assistance, shelter and cash assistance to keep utilities on.

So, here are my questions to readers for this informal survey and forum. Ponder them and then send your responses via comments. Thanks for reading.

1. Do you know someone experiencing financial hardship right now?

2. Is this a new situation for them? Can you describe it?

3. Are or were they employed in the auto industry or auto parts sector?

4. If you know people considering relocating out of the state, why are they considering leaving?

5. Do you think most Michiganders understand the economic downturn is NOT cyclical?

6. Do you think most Michiganders understand the economic situation as a historic shift to post-industrial economy?

7. Do you have any advice for Michiganders having a hard time economically?

8. What do you think can help Michigan's economy?

Trickle downsizing -- auto industry turmoil wracks parts suppliers

From a one-man office in Grand Haven, John Rickfelder sells automotive components directly to the Big Three. His employer, Los Angeles-based Judco Manufacturing, employs nearly 300 people who make electrical switches and other components. Up until two years ago those workers were employed in Los Angeles, but in order to meet price demands of the Big Three, the company moved production to Honduras. Wages there were 90 percent lower than in the United States. "I'm seeing a constant movement of component work leaving for Mexico, China, South America and Central America," Rickfelder said.

Many auto parts suppliers are moving jobs overseas, downsizing or quitting the business altogether in response to ongoing challenges in the domestic auto market. The auto parts sector is an important part of Michigan's economy, providing 10 percent of all jobs.

A car is more than the sum of its parts, and Michigan's automotive economy is much more than the Big Three. For every one automotive assembly job, there are about four parts supplier jobs. According to industry analysts, each assembly job also accounts for three to four additional jobs in local businesses. As the Big Three restructure, downsize and outsource, suppliers have scrambled to remain viable and competitive. Some have survived, but many have not.

"We have a lot of consolidation going on in the supplier community. There are bankruptcies, companies going out of business, global purchasing - the turmoil here is absolutely huge," said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research. "The cut backs and buyouts really ramped down production at the end of the year. And that is difficult for suppliers because their purchase orders and sales have been hit very, very hard."

In the last few years, the majority of tier-one suppliers, those selling directly to the Big Three, have filed bankruptcy. Tier-two and tier-three companies, those who sell to the major suppliers, subsequently suffer the consequences of the sector's upheaval - chaos trickles down.

The auto parts manufacturing sector accounts for 523,700 jobs or about 10 percent of total state employment in Michigan - the highest proportion of any state economy. According to the Center for Automotive Research, motor vehicle parts supplier operations contributed 145,800 direct jobs, 192,732 indirect jobs (people who work to supply the parts manufacturers) and 185,164 expenditure induced jobs (jobs created coming from consumer spending of direct and indirect employees).

"Over a five-year period, 90 percent of the tier ones are or will be filing bankruptcy," said Laurie Schmald Moncrieff, third-generation owner of Schmald Tool & Die in Burton. As the Big Three make fewer cars, the economic and employment impact for Michigan suppliers and communities is profound.

"If you drive down some of the heavy industrial streets in Detroit, like Groesbeck, there is one after another of small manufacturing factories for sale," said Brian Sullivan, director of sales and marketing for the Tooling, Manufacturing and Technologies Association, a national trade association representing small manufacturers. "It is like 'The Grapes of Wrath.' People are leaving and trying to find another place to make a living."

Sullivan attributes the harsh economic climate for small manufacturers to "bad trade laws" and foreign competitors not adhering to trade agreements. Moncrieff agrees, noting: "The Chinese government, although illegal under WTO (World Trade Organization) rules and trade agreements, picks up a third of the cost of new equipment, and the Bank of China picks up a third. So somebody who owns a company in China only has to pick up a third of the cost of new equipment."

But while keenly aware of foreign competition, Moncrieff sees the situation's complexity. Small manufacturers face higher overhead costs, and many are overleveraged. They also face increased regulatory compliance requirements. She said many companies, complacent from years of ample business, were caught off-guard by the impact of Big Three restructuring.

"There is going to have to be a consolidation. The situation a lot of people are in is they can't afford to stay in business and they can't afford to get out," Moncrieff said.

"What a lot of small manufacturers are doing is rather than try to sell their business because they see the handwriting on the wall, they simply close the door. They just lock the door and they go away," Sullivan said.

But Irvin Swider, president of Future Products Corp., in Clawson, offers another model for coping with the tough environment. His company, founded 44 years ago by his father, is a tier-two tooling company that has no debt, owns all its machinery and facilities and has a corps of 65 long-term, highly skilled employees. Swider is aware of the challenges in the sector, but committed to sustaining and building his business in Michigan.

While automotive demand is shrinking, Swider is seeking opportunities in other sectors. "The bottom line is there is too much supply for the demand right now," Swider said. "We have started diversifying into the medical sector and aerospace. We also do tooling for appliance and HVAC (heating, ventilating and air conditioning) manufacturing."

Ultimately Swider pegs hope for his company's future to the quality of his employees: "I could not go to Shanghai and open this business. Who would I have to do the work? These are highly skilled laborers. The people are everything."

Davos irony -- heavy as dioxin-laden sediment in the Saginaw River

Thousands of Michigan citizens are suing Dow Chemical over dioxin contamination of the Tittabawassee flood plain in a class-action lawsuit. But Friday in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon praised Dow Chemical for its programs and efforts to be part of "the water solution."

Laying out a scenario connecting climate change with increased water scarcity and subsequent political unrest, Ban dished out praise of Dow, Nestle and Coca-Cola alongside an appeal to corporate executives to help the U.N. bring poor people clean water.

But Dow already has plenty to do in Michigan to bring clean water to over 300,000 people -- cleanup of the Tittabawassee and Saginaw Rivers, which Dow polluted for decades and which affects people in Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. Add to that remediation of a mind-boggling 1.6 million parts per trillion of dioxin contamination found in the Saginaw River last summer, and one can hardly imagine global corporate citizen Dow generously spending elsewhere to be part of "the water solution."

Earlier this month, the EPA ceased negotiations with Dow over dioxin cleanup of the Tittabawassee River system. That name doesn't capture the scope or gravity of the situation. We're talking about a vast watershed that drains into Lake Huron, one of our beloved Great Lakes -- the world's largest freshwater resource. The EPA said Dow's cleanup proposal didn't do enough to protect human health. But even more is at stake.

If U.N. Secretary-General Ban is right that climate change will increase water scarcity, then our Great Lakes will become a strategic global resource. Already coveted by parched desert-southwest cities, with politicians calling for a "national water policy," the Great Lakes are the natural asset that most defines our region.

Industries will come and go, produce and pollute, lay off and outsource. Will the water they leave behind be fit for human consumption in the decades ahead? Will the world's largest freshwater system be able to sustain human communities if it is filthy -- and -- shrinking due to climate change?

For now, lawsuits are cheaper than cleanup. So citizens affected by pollution will have to fight in court for their health, the health of the environment and their right to clean water.

Meanwhile, global corporate citizens can gather in remote idyllic retreats to brainstorm, think big thoughts and pat each other on the back for a job well done.

Voter advocates get ready for November

Now that Michigan's confusing primary election has passed, voter advocates are taking stock and working to assure a smooth and fair election in November.

Advocates say that low voter turnout actually helped keep primary election problems to a minimum. But, they caution that if the Democratic ticket in November includes Sen. Barack Obama, it could mean huge turnout in Detroit and a logistical challenge to clerks and poll workers conducting the election.

Michigan's quirky Democratic primary did confuse voters. Due to the incomplete Democratic primary ballot, some voters felt disenfranchised. Others who voted didn't know the Democratic ballot was incomplete until getting to the polls. Most who came to the polls seemed to understand the voter ID law. Although November's general election ballot will certainly be more straightforward, much higher turnout and Michigan's voter ID law could increase the possibility of problems at the polls.

"People were upset they couldn't vote for Obama or anyone else they wanted to support who wasn't on the ballot. They thought there was a widespread attempt to disenfranchise the African-American vote," said Brian White, who spent much of the day at polls in Detroit. White is Michigan local advocate for the Advancement Project, a Washington, D.C., voter advocacy group.

"I got some calls on primary day from random voters asking, `Were we disenfranchised? Do we have a lawsuit here?' " said Jocelyn Benson, professor of law at Wayne State University. A specialist in election law, Benson says that disenfranchisement didn't happen in the Michigan primary, because it involves "government stopping people from voting."

"It's hard to argue when you can cast a vote, that you were disenfranchised because you can't vote for the candidate of your preference," Benson said.

Looking ahead to November, Benson has concerns about Michigan's voter ID law suppressing minority votes. "I think there is some evidence, that when you are talking about who doesn't have ID's, you are talking about poor voters, voters who don't drive and elderly voters. You are talking about poor individuals who are predominantly voters of color," Benson said.

She believes that an outreach campaign on the part of the Secretary of State's Office could limit problems in November. She suggests that a simple plan could involve "contacting individuals who are registered to vote, but are not on the drivers license list, and encouraging them to get identification."

While voter advocates make voter education a priority, a lack of political interest on the part of the general public challenges such efforts. "Information about the Democratic National Committee stripping the delegates from Michigan is relatively obscure," said Vincent Hutchings, an associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Illustrating the general public's limited political knowledge, Hutchings said, "Something on the order of 10 to 15 percent of Americans have never heard of Dick Cheney. And the majority of Americans have not heard of Robert Gates."

Although he sees political apathy among the general public, Hutchings, an expert on race in politics and American elections, describes Obama's candidacy as taking on a "movement quality." "He actually started off wanting to be a symbol for change in politics -- a symbol for post-identity politics and post-racial politics," Hutchings said. "Instead he is becoming a symbol for identity politics even though he strives not to be that."

Enthusiasm for an Obama candidacy could lead to big turnout in Detroit and big demands on poll workers. White's concerns for such a scenario include: ensuring that voters know their rights and the voting process, making sure polls are adequately staffed and have enough equipment, making sure polling places open on time, and ensuring an adequate supply of ballots.

"We have to recognize that depending on who is on the ballot, we can expect high turnout and take precautions now to ensure that when voters show up at the polls that we don't have the situations we saw in Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000," White said. The outcome of the 2000 presidential election turned on the Florida vote, which was extremely close. Inconsistent ballots, disputes over butterfly ballots, hanging chads and hand recounts eventually led to the U.S. Supreme Court decision Bush v. Gore, which effectively halted the recount and resulted in Bush's win. In Ohio in 2004, there were reported discrepancies including unequal access to voting machines -- traditionally Democratic areas needed more machines; Republican areas had enough.

Benson recommends that voters check their registration status ahead of time at publius.org or on the secretary of state's website. "I'm of the opinion that it is the government's role to make sure everyone can vote," Benson said. "But checking their registration is one thing voters can do ahead of time."

Educating for a brave new economy -- homeland security in higher education

Homeland security, a concept born after the September 11th attacks, has developed into a $54 billion global market of goods and services. Several Michigan colleges and universities offer degree programs to meet emerging homeland-security needs and prepare students for employment opportunities in this brave new economy. But not all in academe are buying this idea.

Proponents of these programs see them as a way to stimulate Michigan's economy and help the state move from a heavy manufacturing economy to a knowledge-based economy. They see a golden opportunity for Michigan to take the lead in an emerging industry.

"This is a direction that could be profitable and could take Michigan out of its downward spiral," said Dan Shoemaker, professor of computer and information systems at the University of Detroit Mercy (UDM).

"This is an opportunity to move Michigan from this whole notion of the rust belt to an area that is going to continue to grow and expand. It is an area that we are not going to outsource to other countries like China or India or Russia, " said Reid Gough, dean of Davenport University's School of Technology. Davenport, which also offers degrees in network security and information assurance, hosts one of the nation's two biometric security programs. The other is at West Virginia University.

Biometric security identifies people based on unique personal characteristics such as iris scans or fingerprints. Gough and industry experts expect growing demand for biometric security systems in public and private sectors. "Homeland security is always looking for ways to make sure you are who you say you are," Gough said. He expects all U.S. passports to include biometric security features within the next two years.

According to Gough, about 85 percent of the nation's critical infrastructure is privately-owned, which points to a huge domestic market for homeland security products and services.

Davenport's program has about 700 students who will graduate equipped for positions such as chief security officer, network security analyst, network security coordinator or a biometric security manager.

UDM is recognized as a pioneer in homeland security for its program in information assurance. The university bears the distinction of being a National Security Agency (NSA) National Center of Academic Excellence. Currently, 86 schools in 34 states hold the designation through a program jointly sponsored by the NSA and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Eastern Michigan University is the only other Michigan school with the designation.

"Information assurance means protecting anything that has to do with any information of value," said Shoemaker, director of the Center for Assurance Studies at UDM. A broad concept, the field of information assurance includes hardware and software, corporate and public policy, business continuity, privacy, audits and disaster recovery.

UDM's Shoemaker has been instrumental in creating the International Cyber Security Education Coalition (ICSEC) comprising smaller schools in Michigan and Ohio, as well as London South Bank University in England. He describes ICSEC as an outreach organization that helps schools get aligned with NSA and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) standards for information assurance. These standards are promulgated in the 45-page document "IT Security Essential Body of Knowledge," released by the DHS in October.

A strong advocate for information assurance, Shoemaker says policymakers lack a thorough and integrated understanding of computer security needs and the breadth of possible security threats. He sees higher education as a way to teach future policymakers and community leaders about the necessity for information assurance and other preventive strategies.

"Homeland security is a proactive approach to securing the nation's infrastructure. You want to stop something before it happens," said Greg Gogolin, professor of information security and intelligence at Ferris State University. Five years ago, Ferris State started a master's degree program in information systems with a concentration in computer forensics and security. More recently, the school added a minor in homeland security digital forensics available to its criminal justice students, which number about 1,000.

Ferris also created the nation's first undergraduate program in information security and intelligence. Core courses include information security, data mining, GIS, visual analysis, computer forensics, risk analysis, competitive theory, and organized crime, gang and terrorist organizations.

Gogolin says the Department of Defense finance division has already started recruiting students, even though the farthest along are only juniors in the program. Looking for opportunities to expand security related training, Gogolin said, "Our digital animation and game design program is extremely popular. We're looking at leveraging that with these other degrees to create courses in computer simulation."

While some schools are aggressively pursuing programs related to homeland security, others in higher education don't see it as a panacea. "Homeland security is not a long-term solution for the economy," said Fred Pearson, director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies at Wayne State University.

Pearson thinks there is a role for homeland security in balance with common sense, rational thought and broad knowledge about the world. "The challenge for education is not to overspecialize. You need people who know something about politics, history, economics, sociology, even art, even if they become engineers."

Gogolin agrees. "The technology is going to come and go, but the thinking is the key piece." Students in information security at Ferris must meet foreign language requirements and take religion classes to be able to think "in different perspectives."

Pearson argues for a broader understanding of security than frequently found in technical degree programs. "Security has been argued to be related to health care, environmental quality, welfare. People are insecure when they are breathing toxic air and subject to death from various public health crises. If you really want to talk about the subject of security, it is broader than the military and it ranges into how people are secure in their lives," Pearson said.

"Terrorist attacks can happen here, but it is not happening every day. You have to look at why it is happening," Pearson said. "It can happen here again, but it doesn't call for revamping our whole social structure out of panic."

Tested. Ready. Now. Giuliani needs better wordsmiths

You have to be kidding.
Who came up with this? Tested. Ready. Now.

If this is the best campaign slogan Giuliani can muster, he deserves to lose.

It sounds like something you might say about No Child Left Behind and we all know what a success that has been.

Where is the inspiration and vision?
Tested. Like my smoke detector when I push the little red button?
Ready. Like my microwaved convenience food?
Now. Like the starter pistol at a foot race?

Please just toss in the towel and go back to Bracewell and Giuliani and give thanks that you are so well placed to prosper in the time of our empire's decline.

Michigan's 'uncommitted' vote: what did it mean?

cross posted at Michigan Messenger

Did Michigan's "uncommitted" vote reveal anything about race?

On the heels of the Michigan primary, race has become a central issue among Democratic candidates, pundits of all persuasions and voters yet to participate in their state primaries. CNN exit poll results released Tuesday night continue to fuel speculation that Sen. Hillary Clinton has a problem attracting African-American voters.

At 9 p.m. on election night, before all precincts had reported voting results, CNN released a brief report citing "potentially troubling news for Clinton in Michigan win." The report claimed that "roughly 70 percent of African-Americans cast their votes for `uncommitted.' "

But did the exit polling actually reveal anything about race and voter preference in Michigan and can this information shed light on primaries in other states?

"Considering that it was an uncompetitive election with very low turnout rates, it's very hard to extrapolate what happened in Michigan's Democratic primary to explain what is happening in actual competitive races," said Stewart L. French, professor of political science at Saginaw Valley State University.

An expert in political parties and elections, French says that exit poll findings must be taken in context of voter turnout. Percentages based on small numbers of voters don't reliably indicate trends in voter behavior. He says that Michigan's Democratic primary is too unusual to be compared to other primaries across the country. The ballot was incomplete and the race, uncompetitive.

CNN based its claim on exit polling data that sampled 997 voters who participated in Tuesday's election. Of the 997 respondents, 23 percent identified as African-American - 229 voters. The exit poll reported 68 percent of those voted "uncommitted."

"The media's reaction to this is going to influence the South Carolina race where there is a heavy African-American population and where there are race issues," French said.

In the case of the 229 African-American participants in the CNN poll, there is doubt that their views "reflect accurately the attitudes of all Michigan African-Americans."

The media are "extrapolating from African-Americans who did vote and making conclusions about African-Americans who didn't vote and then turning that into `African-Americans don't like Hillary,' " French said.

Oversampling and undersampling can compromise accuracy of polling data. A random sample doesn't always produce a true representation of the population. So pollsters sometimes seek out more or fewer of a certain group. Instead of a random sample of precincts, pollsters choose which to include based on demographics. But, French says, problems can creep in if the turnout is low. Pollsters can't be sure the attitudes of the individuals included represent the actual population.

CNN exit polling results raise questions beyond the impact of race on the "uncommitted" vote. Sixty percent of female respondents favored Clinton. Do Edwards and Obama have a disadvantage among women voters? Voters aged 18-29 overwhelmingly voted "uncommitted." Does Clinton have a disadvantage among young voters?

"A lot of people assume if Edwards dropped out all his people would go for Obama, but that is not true," French said. According to the CNN exit polls, 30 percent of Edwards supporters said they voted for Clinton, not "uncommitted."

"There is a lot of stuff going on here and it's more nuanced than the media want to make it out to be," said French. "Uncommitted" actually beat Clinton in two counties - Washtenaw and Emmet. But neither win seems to be a matter of African-American voters skewing the outcome.

Preliminary examination of precinct data point to possible crossover voting by Republicans in Emmet County. According to the U.S. census, Emmet County's population is 0.5 percent black. French compared the primary results with precinct results from the last gubernatorial election, and found "uncommitted" winning in places that Republican Dick DeVos had carried by 60 percent.

Clinton faced the strongest competition in Washtenaw County. Washtenaw's support for "uncommitted" may be correlated to age, income and education level. According to the CNN exit poll data, "uncommitted" scored strongly among 18-29-year-olds, people with postgraduate degrees, and those earning $100,000 or more. Washtenaw's median household income at $55,431 is well above the state median. While 21 percent of Michigan adults have a college degree, in Washtenaw the figure is 48 percent.

The county is home to the University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University and several small colleges, which could account for a significant number of young voters. Washtenaw County's population is 12.5 percent black, below the state rate of 14 percent.

Stewart says the only way to really understand what was happening was to ask voters. On Tuesday, voters chose "uncommitted" for a range of reasons. Some supported Obama, others Edwards. Some had other reasons. One Ann Arbor voter wanted "to send a message to the DNC that there are Democrats in Michigan who want to be counted." Many expressed anger at the Democratic Party for allowing the Michigan election to become so confused and possibly irrelevant.

Uncommitted wins Washtenaw County

"Uncommitted" took more votes than Clinton in Washtenaw County. Kucinich made a strong showing there, as well. "Uncommitted" scored 46 percent,Clinton 43 percent and Kucinich took nearly 9 percent.

Romney taps hope for economy

Why did Romney trounce McCain in Michigan? Of the two, Romney expressed an audacious hope for our economy and manufacturing base.

He told a story people in Michigan hunger to hear and he made it personal. He was born here. His father headed up American Motors and was governor. His parents are buried here. He said we can be great again. He said that manufacturing doesn't have to die. He strode through the Detroit Auto Show, head high, son of the man who made the Rambler. He believes we can bring back all the jobs we have lost. He rode in on a white horse and promised to save us.

It's a fairy tale voters wanted to hear, needed to hear. Humans have an insatiable appetite for stories, symbols and myth. Humans need meaning. We want our lives to add up to something and narrative keeps us on track. We crave stories of hope in trying times, because facts can be devastating -- facts like Michigan's job loss over recent years.

When Romney says "all the jobs," does he mean the 400,000 lost since 1999 or just the 76,300 lost in 2007? McCain was more realistic and allowed that all the jobs cannot come back. That was not a winning narrative, even if it is the truth.

Perhaps Romney's win is the triumph of faith over reason.

Michigan's economic issues are the nation's issues. But is Michigan's candidate, the nation's candidate? Romney is framing the win as "a victory of optimism over Washington-style pessimism," already aiming for broader relevance. His strategy in Michigan was that of native son, coming home to rescue his people. Will the "native son" strategy backfire and be used against him, painting him as locally appealing but not nationally relevant? Can he translate this spot-on Michigan narrative into a national narrative?

To do this he may need to assert that the national economy is in dire straits. Recent data do point to a national recession having started in December of last year. Romney may need to do some truth-telling about global labor markets, corporate greed and unfair trade practices before he can present himself as the solution. Michigan's issues are national issues. But is the rest of the nation ready to admit they need to be saved by Mitt Romney?

Election day is here, go get 'em

Dear voters,
On Tuesday, January 15, you have the chance to vote in history's strangest primary election ever.

If you are a Democrat and your candidate is not on the ballot, you have several disappointing options.

You can vote 'uncommitted' as a protest, or in support of your candidate who chose to withdraw from the contest. Understand though, a chunk of 'uncommitted' will likely be interpreted as discrediting Clinton's tally.

You can crossover to the GOP primary and make some tortured, narrowly strategic choice -- Romney, keep him in to keep 'em fighting; Paul, Constitution packing straight shooter; McCain, to embarrass Romney in his gimme state ; Thompson,'cause you like the red truck; Huckabee, God's own populist; Giuliani, presumably tolerant of gays, himself documented in drag; Duncan Who?

But, if you do identify as a Democrat, and you feel disenfranchised by your strange and empty ballot, a vote for 'uncommitted' can add together with others to show the Democratic National Committee that you exist and intend to be counted as a Democrat.

A friend of mine sent the DNC an email about the Michigan primary expressing concern, upset, and seeking an explanation for Michigan's mess. The DNC email system didn't even send an auto reply. My friend is now disgusted and as of this evening, undecided about whom to choose tomorrow.

Instead of voting for someone by second guessing his or her chances of beating the likely opponent in November, why not just choose the person whose positions match your own? Yes, it's a crazy idea, because for a lot of progressives this will be Kucinich -- unelectable in our media environment. For fiscal conservatives opposed to the war and worried about civil rights, this might be Paul -- equally unelectable.

Good luck, voters. Let your issues be your guide.

Expect the unexpected in Michigan's primary

Michigan's presidential primary may produce results as unexpected as the election is peculiar.

"God knows what is going to happen on the Democratic side," said Stewart L. French, professor of political science at Saginaw Valley State University. French thinks that in Michigan: Sen. Hillary Clinton faces a lose-lose situation, Mike Huckabee's populist message will win crossover votes and that even if Mitt Romney loses the state his campaign will continue.

Clinton faces opposition from 'uncommitted,' which could include supporters of Sen. Barack Obama, John Edwards, Al Gore and general protest votes. French, who specializes in political parties and elections, considers 60 percent to be the threshold for declaring a Clinton victory. But such a win will be hollow. "If she gets 60 percent, everyone will shrug and say of course she won, she was the only one on the ballot," French said alluding to political pundits. The worst case scenario for Clinton would be if 'uncommitted' wins. Edwards and Obama could use that to cast doubt on Clinton's candidacy going forward.

"On the Republican side, I think Huckabee is going to do much better than people expect," he said. French attributes this to Huckabee's persuasive populist message in an economically depressed Michigan. "He is actively trying to get people from the Democratic side to come over and vote for him." Huckabee's message is aimed at evangelical and religious Democrats and those who are stressed economically, in particular union members. In addition, Edwards, the only Democrat with a similarly strong populist message, is absent from the ballot.

"If you are making a populist economic appeal along with conservative social issues, you have a formidable opponent for the Democrats," French said. He believes that if Huckabee doesn't win the Republican nomination he will be chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate.

Some analysts consider Michigan a do or die state for Mitt Romney, but French disagrees and thinks Romney will stay in the race regardless of how he does Tuesday. " If he is still doing okay among Republican voters he will stay in because he has the money to do so." Romney may be motivated to stay in the race by the prospect of a brokered convention.

If primary elections across the country fail to produce a clear leader in either party, that party's convention would be "brokered." In a brokered convention, no candidate has a majority of delegates necessary to win the nomination. As a result, deal making plays a role in achieving a nomination. French speculates that a brokered convention is possible for both parties.

"I don't know that Super Tuesday is going to determine the Republicans' race. If Edwards stays in it and continues to scrape off 20 percent you may have two brokered conventions. One with Edwards as king maker and someone like Romney a possible king maker."