GM is number 1? Not by .14 percent

Sports fans, don't be fooled. GM is not your favorite sports team. Resist the urge to identify with this global corporation's "success."

The Free Press reports:
"'We’ve been No. 1 for 76 years. We like being No. 1, and we’re going to stay focused on our long term goals,' said GM spokesman John McDonald."

This renewed No. 1 status amounts to 10,000 more vehicles than Toyota sold globally over the first nine months of the year. GM's total, 7.06 million.

Not to rain on your parade, GM, but that's .14 (point one four) percent more vehicles sold globally -- a statistically insignificant amount.

There's no trophy for selling a statistically insignificant greater number of significantly less profitable vehicles globally. According to the Free Press,"Last year, Toyota clearly beat GM on the profitability point. Toyota reported a profit of $14 billion, while GM reported $2-billion loss."

More troubling is the impact of lack of profitability on workers. The ink is barely dry on the recent agreement between GM and the UAW. Workers were pleased to sign the agreement with promises of future production of certain vehicles. GM proudly and strategically announced production of the Chevy Volt in Hamtramck in 2010 just before laying off 767 workers in Hamtramck last Tuesday. More Hamtramck layoffs are planned for the fall.

GM announced yesterday that 1,000 workers would be laid off by year's end at the Lansing cross over plant.

GM is only profitable in its oversees operations. There will be more pruning in North America for the foreseeable future. Workers would be well advised to consider immediate and profound retooling of their skill sets.

Recall efforts in context

Are recalls genuine grassroots activity among voters to express dissatisfaction with elected officials? Or are they a political strategy to distract, confuse and complicate the political landscape as the 2008 presidential primary draws near? Or could they be a blend of both?

Michigan Taxpayers Alliance threatened to initiate recalls against any legislator voting to increase taxes as part of the state's budget resolution. Immediately upon completion of the continuation budget process, the group named Democrats and Republicans whom they would target for recall. MTA has been consistent in its threat, but not consistent in its follow-through.

A relatively new website, MichiganRecalls.com targets Republicans and Democrats who supported the revenue portion of September's budget agreement. But the website doesn't threaten recall of all who voted in favor of the revenues. If these really were principled efforts, wouldn't they target all who voted to increase taxes? Doesn't their "no compromise" position on taxes require consistency in applying their sole criterion for recalling elected officials? In fact, they can only proceed in districts where voters can be persuaded to participate in this destructive activity.

The movement to recall legislators, while thoroughly distracting, doesn't represent the actual sentiment of a majority of Michigan citizens. In fact, numerous Republicans and Democrats have gone on record criticizing the effort as destructive to the well-being of our state now and in the future.

Here is a sampling of the conversation against recall efforts:
Phil Power wrote:

"Recalls result in loss of local control to fringe groups supported by lots of out-of-state money. Why is it that Leon Drolet, a former state representative from Macomb County, should have the power to pick legislators from all over the state?

Do voters in Warren (Steve Bieda), or Redford Township (Andy Dillon), or Northville (Marc Corriveau), or the Grosse Pointes (Ed Gaffney), or Muskegon (Mary Valentine), Norton Shores (Gerald Van Woerkom), or Brighton (Chris Ward), or Howell (Valde Garcia) or Holland (Wayne Kuipers) want to sign their rights over to Drolet?

All these folks picked their own representatives last November, and I see no reason why the choices of the Leon Drolets of the world should be more important than theirs were last November."

A Detroit Free Press Editorial from October 7:

"So recalls can have an impact. But first, they ought to have a legitimate basis.

Casting an unpopular, but fundamentally necessary and correct vote, is not. Letting recall backers set the tone for Michigan politics in the still-critical weeks ahead will be counterproductive and just plain wrong."

A Grand Haven Tribune Editorial from October 16:

"With the need to get the state in financial order, recall elections are the last thing this state needs.

Lawmakers shouldn't be punished for being willing to make courageous decisions.

In fact, the 10 legislators who are being targeted should be applauded for their willingness to support decisions that they feel will serve in the state's best interest.

We only hope that our governor and the rest of the Legislature show some courage in getting Michigan back on track."

What is behind the efforts to recall legislators? Divide and conquer. Grover Norquist, who lends his name to the MTA board, managed to make his way to the GOP Mackinac leadership weekend in September to urge our state GOP to re-brand as an anti-tax party. Apparently, they really didn't need much encouragement to move that direction, seeing as how the votes around revenues were cast nearly exclusively down party lines. And this isn't really very creative as political strategy. It is, however, time-tested and consultant approved. And in the absence of a really strong, vibrant state Democratic party, it might have legs.

Make no mistake, Michigan's misfortune and internal conflict are seen as opportunity by those who would further divide us for political gain. The recall effort is not fundamentally homegrown, grassroots activism. True, there are some participants who have been fighting taxes in Michigan for decades. But their passion is being cynically tapped by outsiders with other political objectives.

We who actually live and work and seek our happiness in Michigan need to take responsibility for our future and resist forces that would seek further to divide our house at the moment we most need to come together.

UAW resistance grows to Chrysler contract offer

UAW local opposition to the proposed Chrysler contract continues to grow. Detroit Axel; St. Louis North; Twinsburg, Ohio; St. Louis South Assembly; Newark, Delaware and Fenton, Missouri have all voted against the agreement.

The contract needs majority approval of all members voting to be ratified.

At issue, a lack of commitment to build future products and a two-tier wage system. Experts expect opposition to gain momentum as more locals decline the offer. Chrysler has some room to stand its ground. Reuters reported Wednesday that Chrysler will be eliminating some products in the near term. Fourth quarter auto sales are expected to continue to lag. So, the company is anticipating lower production demands.

According to the Detroit News, ratification votes will include:

Local	City	Vote Date
75	Milwaukee	Today
76	Fremont, Calif.	Today
212	Detroit (Conner)	Today
412	Auburn Hills	Today
868	Conyers, Ga.	Today
889	Warren (Clerical)	Today
1649	Orlando, Fla.	Today
7	Detroit (Jefferson North)	Sunday
509	Pico Rivera, Calif.	Sunday
624	Syracuse, NY (New Process Gear)	Sunday
2149	Syracuse, NY (Engineering)	Monday
685	Kokomo (Transmission)	Tuesday
1166	Kokomo (Casting)	Tuesday
140	Warren (Warren Truck, Sterling Emission)	Wednesday
869	Warren (Stamping)	Wednesday
1264	Sterling Heights (Stamping)	Wednesday
1700	Sterling Heights (Assembly)	Wednesday

New voting requirement stirs controversy

cross-posted at Michigan Messenger

Michigan's January 15 presidential primary will be the first time since 1992 that Michigan voters will have to indicate a party preference in order to receive a ballot and vote. Experts differ in how they expect this to affect voter behavior. Some advocates think it is simply a bad idea.

Voter advocates are concerned about privacy issues and inhibiting voter participation. They also criticize using public monies for political purposes, such as collecting lists of voters' presumed party preferences. But in the context of elections, gathering such information is standard procedure.

"The Republicans are going to make out very well in this presidential primary because they will have succeeded in getting the state of Michigan to pay for their ability to collect the names of their people," says Jan BenDor, statewide coordinator for non-profit, non-partisan Michigan Election Reform Alliance. "They will finally have a perfect mailing list of who the Republicans are. The state of Michigan will spend $10 million for them to do that. They have wanted this for years."

The Democratic Party will also receive a list - voters who requested a Democratic ballot. But given the incomplete field of candidates on the ballot and the possibility of cross-over voting, the Democratic list is likely to be smaller and less informative.

University of Michigan political science professor, Michael Traugott, who specializes in campaigns and elections, agrees that one purpose of the primary is to gather names of citizens and their likely voting preference. Speaking about the motivations of political parties, Traugott says,"A lot of what they do in the caucuses and primaries with these party ballots is check on the accuracy of their lists." He says that consultants and strategists collect information from local election officials to supplement and refine existing voter lists.

"What they really want are names and addresses." He says that information collected in primary elections is cross referenced and statistically analyzed to arrive at what are believed to be authoritative, up-to-date address lists of likely voters for each party.

According to Tom Frazier, legislative liaison with the Michigan Township Association, the Secretary of State's Bureau of Elections will be creating a form for all clerks to use on election day with a box to check whether a voter wants a Republican ballot or a Democratic ballot.

"They aren't declaring what their party preference is, only declaring they want to vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary," says Frazier. "This is different than the last time this came about, which was the presidential election in 1992, where people did have to formally declare their party preference before being given a ballot."

The League of Women Voters of Michigan is squarely opposed to "any procedures that require voters to name a party in order to cast a vote," says Jessica Reiser, president of the group. The League contends that such procedures at the time of voting inhibit voter participation.

Traugott concurs, but thinks the actual number of voters turned off by such a procedure will be small and that privacy issues don't really apply. "Registration and voting records have always been public. But in these special circumstances they can record which ballot you requested and that would become part of the record," he says. "It is an act of freewill and they don't know who you voted for. Some small proportion of voters won't come to the polls because of it."

Where's my budget!? (Trick or Treat?)

The Detroit Free Press reports that Michigan is headed for Ground Hog Day on Halloween. It's deja vu all over again. Another tie score in our extra budget inning of October. That's right -- partisan wrangling continues and threatens another government shutdown.

It really isn't too early to say that. It may even be better for our collective mental health to accept that possibility today, rather than on Halloween. What a cosmic joke that would be -- trick or treat at the state house. Trick -- sorry no budget agreement, you get a shutdown instead. Treat -- we managed to work together for the first time in nine months.

Considering human nature and what we have endured this year, which is more likely?

According to the Free Press, areas of conflict include: medicaid, the Department of Human Services, foster care, and DNR license fees.

If this ongoing inability to compromise surprises you, you may be the eternal optimist, young at heart and willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt. If you find it boring, disappointing and lacking drama, you are probably middle-aged.

Regardless your age and world view, as one of Michigan's ten million citizens, you will be affected by what happens in Lansing on Halloween.

If we are very, very lucky on October 31st, we might only have to worry about having enough candy by the front door.

Pfizer posts 77% earnings decline

If you live in Ann Arbor, you might be tempted to engage in hearty Schadenfreude at the news of tough times for Pfizer.

The company reports a 77 percent decline in third quarter earnings.

Pfizer has ditched development of Exubera, an inhaled insulin product that had promised to be big. Rational exuberance has yielded to rational cutting of losses.

Pfizer reportedly does not have enough drugs in development to offset losses from generic competition. The company has recently lost exclusivity with Zithromax, Zoloft and Norvasc.

Voter ID law confusing, critics say

Michigan's voter ID law has been touted as inhibiting voter fraud, but critics contend it is confusing, impractical and likely to inhibit voter participation.

Voters lacking photo identification can vote simply by signing an affidavit saying that they lack identification at the time of voting. Their ballot will be counted with all other ballots and their right to vote cannot be challenged. The November 6 election will be the first test of the newly allowed procedure. The ID requirement went into effect after a Michigan Supreme Court decision this summer held Michigan's 1996 voter ID law to be constitutional.

"The legislative intent behind the voter ID law was to substantiate identity and curtail fraud," says Kelly Chesney, spokesperson for the Michigan Secretary of State's Office. "If individuals without ID sign an affidavit falsely, they are subject to fines and penalties. It is considered perjury and is punishable by a fine up to $1000 or imprisonment. So there is a deterrent to individuals committing fraud."

Since lacking the ID at time of voting does not prevent voting, the direct practical impact of the law is unclear. "We are not aware of any voter fraud causing a need for a voter ID requirement," says Jessica Reiser, president of the non-partisan Michigan League of Women Voters.

According to the Secretary of State, if a voter lacks the proper identification, signing an affidavit to that effect allows them to vote. The local election clerks must keep the signed forms on record for two years -- the same retention schedule for all other election materials. Election challengers cannot challenge voters because they lack photo ID.

Although the November 6, 2007 election is actually the first election where this will be enforced, not all municipalities will have an election that day. For many voters, Michigan's January 15 primary will be the first time they must comply with Michigan's photo identification requirement in order to cast their vote.

The League of Women Voters has consistently criticized voter ID laws as inhibiting voter participation. "The League of Women Voters opposes any procedure requiring identification to vote. We feel this is intimidating and will keep people from coming to the polls," says Reiser.

"There is a population that will not understand the affidavit requirement. This misunderstanding could inhibit voter turn out," says Reiser. She says people will assume that the photo ID law prevents voting without a proper ID in hand. Although this is not the case, the League expects such confusion to keep certain voters away from the polls.

Chesney says that local election officials are working very hard to train front line poll workers to properly assist voters. Still, some local clerks expect the new photo ID requirement will complicate voting. "I'm sure a lot of people will not have the required ID,"says Dorothy Dunville, Acme Township Clerk. "The required affidavit paperwork will definitely slow down the voting process."

There are no exceptions to the photo identification procedure. Even if the voter is well known to the election inspector the ID procedure must be followed. The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a voter ID case from Indiana - the Indiana Democratic Party v. Rokita - which could challenge Michigan's voter ID law. The Court has not yet scheduled the case.

Lou Glazer of Michigan Future, Inc. on education and prosperity

Lou Glazer cares about Michigan’s economic future. The president of Michigan Future, Inc., he has spent more than a year presenting New Agenda for a New Michigan to more than one hundred organizations across the state. This week we talked about economic development, investing in talent, and how Michigan can successfully transition from the old manufacturing economy to the nascent knowledge economy.

“Nothing correlates higher than educational attainment with prosperity and high incomes," says Glazer. Yet, Michigan faces a cultural shift of historic proportion to seize that advantage. And current public policy priorities favor funding development of specific industry sectors over investment in higher education.

“For the last three quarters of the last century we had the broadest middle class in the country. And that was wonderful. That happened because 100 years ago we were the equivalent of Silicon Valley; we were inventing what was next,” says Glazer about Michigan’s manufacturing economy. “I believe that economy as a source of mass middle class jobs is over.”

That economy shaped attitudes about the necessity of higher education. As long as heavy manufacturing – the auto industry, in particular – thrived, a high school education could lead to a middle class income. An unfortunate legacy of that blue-collar middle-class culture is a college completion rate that still lags behind the national average.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2004, 24.6 percent of Michigan residents 25 and older have at least a four year college degree. That is below the national rate of 27 percent and below many other states including: Minnesota at 29.7 percent, New York at 30.5 percent and Illinois at 29.1 percent. Governor Granholm has set a goal of doubling the state’s college graduation rate in ten years. Doubling our rate would put Michigan ahead of the District of Columbia (47.7 percent).

Over the last decade, Michigan’s public investment in higher education has eroded. “The most disturbing thing about Michigan public policy over this decade – during Engler and Granholm administrations – is that the state spent a century building up one of the best higher education systems in the world and at the point it matters most, we start dis-investing in it,” says Glazer. “Every one else is investing in their higher education systems and we’re walking away from ours.”

“Preparing, attracting and retaining talent matters most,” says Glazer. He contends that vibrant urban central neighborhoods attract that talent. “When you see the places doing well – Seattle, Boston, New York , Chicago – they are places people want to live. Talent is increasingly moving to central cities.”

According to a 2006 survey of recent college graduates by CEOs for Cities, two thirds of college graduates decide where to live first and then look for work. “Place really matters to this generation. And a big part of Michigan’s problem is that we don’t have a place that is aligned with where young talent wants to live,” says Glazer. He does concede that Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, Lansing and Kalamazoo are making efforts to increase livability of central neighborhoods.

While he advocates public investment in talent, he is skeptical about the economic development approach taken by the 21st Century Jobs Fund. He says that picking the right set of industries and then enterprises within those industries is an inefficient way to foster development. “Every state has a life sciences initiative. Our position is that it’s like fool’s gold. Everybody has the sense that there are riches at the end of the rainbow. The odds that it is going to be your state are low. You have to be really lucky for it to happen in your community,” he says. In addition, those enterprises do not create vast numbers of jobs, certainly not numbers that will offset losses in manufacturing.

So what ought Michigan do? “The pattern we see around the country is that where central cities and higher education are a priority of business leaders they become public policy priorities,” he says. “In Michigan that is missing. The state Chamber of Commerce has basically adopted the Mackinac Center agenda, which is that all public investments are bad and low taxes are the answer.”

Glazer and Michigan Future, Inc. will continue to present their Agenda for the state hoping that the power of their ideas can move leaders to action. As for the general prognosis going forward, using the language of grief, Glazer says, “My sense is we’re somewhere between denial and acceptance.”

Michigan's primary question

Things are not what they seem. After last week's snub by Democratic presidential candidates, the GOP appears to care more about Michigan than the Dems. They don't even have to, really. It is enough to appear as though they do at this point. Success is 80 percent showing up.

Elections are like dodge ball, a team sport where choosing sides determines outcomes. The Dems didn't even pick Michigan -- last. It isn't that they think we are feeble at dodge ball. They just want to enforce party rules. That's fair, but unfortunate for Dems in Michigan, who now face a public relations, administrative, and electoral nightmare.

According to Bill Nowling, spokesperson for the Michigan GOP, a party cannot unilaterally withdraw from the January primary. So, unless the GOP and the Dems agree to cancel, the show will go on. With a gutted ballot, there isn't much incentive for Dems to vote. What's the point? You can't vote for Edwards, Obama, Richardson or Biden. You can vote for the others, but the Democratic National Committee will not seat the delegates at the nominating convention.

There is some talk of having separate caucuses for Democrats in early February. This would be acceptable to the Democratic National Committee. But there is confusion as to whether the party can do a primary and caucuses. There may well be other issues on the ballot in January, like an income tax measure. So, you'd be compelled to vote even if you didn't care to choose a presidential candidate.

Additional caucuses would mean Democratic sympathizers would have to show up twice. Some voters experience caucuses as closed events. This makes the GOP primary appear to support transparency in electoral procedures. But things are not what they seem.

It is common wisdom among GOP elders that low voter turnout favors their party. Over the last two presidential elections, interesting strategies were employed to reach that end. The 2000 election had Florida. The 2004 election had Ohio. Will Michigan be the Ohio of 2008?

In order to win, you just have to get a little more than the other candidate. Just a little. A little here, a little there.

Michigan Election Reform Alliance is a non-profit, non-partisan group working to assure fair, honest elections in Michigan. What? You assumed everything was fine?

This group contends that there are efforts afoot to purge voters in Michigan just before the November presidential election. It is complicated and brilliant. They claim the initiative originates at the Secretary of State's Office. It involves post cards mailed to every voter in Michigan setting in motion a process of gathering undeliverables...the stuff of caging. But it isn't really caging since every voter received the card. The original mailing was sent in July 2006, and if voters whose postcard was undeliverable do not vote by the August 2008 election, they will be purged just in time for November of 2008 -- show time -- and they will not know it until they arrive to vote. The voters most likely to be affected are those who only vote in presidential elections. You know, the bulk of the popular vote.

Remember, Michigan is completely and totally in play for 2008. We have 17 electors up for grabs. At this moment, the GOP ground game and PR strategy appear superior. The Dems appear in disarray. For the sake of the spectators seeking an interesting contest, let's hope the Dems can get their game on before Halloween.

What color is your Michigan?

Blue? Home of progressive, socially liberal, Democrats, who believe in caring for society's most vulnerable and sustaining infrastructure even if it costs citizens more taxes. A state where diversity strengthens communities and all are welcomed.

Red? Haven for low-tax, socially conservative, Christian patriots identifying as Republican. A state where you can come and do business as you please free from excessive government intervention, but inhospitable to gays and other marginal groups.

Green? Center for alternative energy development, public transit, sustainable development, strong locally unique economies and innovative biotechnology involving stem cell research.

Purple? A little blue and a little red mixed together -- a socially liberal place where taxes are low and what happens in the bedroom is private.

Right now, Michigan is a kaleidescope of shifting and changing colors. And what you see will depend on whom you ask.

The key point is that it is not fixed, which means for the 2008 election -- Michigan is up for grabs.

Michigan is fully in play in 2008.

Ponder that.

Consumer Confidence -- Preliminary October Figure

The University of Michigan and Reuters reported their consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 82.0 in October, down from 83.4 in September.
(source)

Michigan primary will go on as planned, say party officials

cross-posted at Michigan Messenger

Officials of the Michigan Republican Party and the Michigan Democratic Party say the January 15 primary will proceed as planned, even though several Democratic candidates have removed their names from the ballot. The renegade date leaves each party vulnerable to sanctions for breaking national party rules.

"Our guys are all on the ballot, they're staying on the ballot and we're having a primary on the 15th," said Bill Nowling, Michigan GOP spokesperson.

According to Washington Post coverage from October 9, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer said that "the state still will hold its joint Democratic-Republican presidential primary on Jan. 15 because it's state law." There is still the possibility that Democrats will also hold a separate presidential caucus on Feb. 9 to officially pick a nominee from the complete list of candidates. Mr. Brewer could not be reached for further comment.

"The important point here is that we allow citizens to participate in the democratic process and that means voting. The bill was a great thing to do. Why would we want to have closed door politics? This was in my mind the best and most efficient thing to do for all the citizens of the state," said Senator Michelle McManus (R-35th), lead sponsor of the bill that moved Michigan's presidential primary to January 15.

The January 15 primary breaks Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee rules and some have speculated about changing it. However, McManus says the date cannot be changed without further legislation. Allowing for another scenario, Nowling says that "the way the law is written both parties have to say that they're not going to participate in the primary for there not to be one. That was put in so one party couldn't stick it to the other at the last minute."

"Internally the Republican Party passed a rule saying that if the Democrats don't want to participate, we're not going to either," McManus said. "But I don't think that's going to happen," she added.

There is more at play, though, than giving citizens a chance to participate in an early, influential primary, instead of a caucus. Nowling, sees an advantage for the GOP resulting from the Democrats' withdrawal from the primary. "We're not going to interrupt our opponents while they're busy shooting themselves in the foot," he said.

"I have a hard time understanding this, given how important Michigan is to Democratic electoral maps," said Nowling. He says that he hasn't seen a Democratic presidential electoral scenario where a Democrat wins without Michigan. "Thumbing your nose at the state early on looks counter intuitive to me," he added.

At the same time, RNC sanctions could result in the Michigan GOP losing up to half its delegates to the nominating convention.

At the local level, some Democrats are frustrated. In Kalamazoo, Democratic 6th District Chair, Alan Harbaugh said, "I am disappointed in the candidates that pulled out of the primary. While I'm sure they didn't mean it as a personal attack upon the voters of Michigan, I think all the voters - Democrat, Republican and Independent - probably took it that way."

Harbaugh suggests changing Iowa's and New Hampshire's lock on opening the presidential primary season and is critical of DNC chair, Howard Dean. "I'm not real please with how Dean has handled this situation. New Hampshire and Iowa should be told this isn't the way it's going to be anymore and that every state in the country is important and we're going to rotate this thing."