Friday, August 17, 2007

Consumer Confidence Index--August Mid-month Figure

It's official, the preliminary August figure from the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment is significantly lower than July's final number of 90.4. August's mid-month assessment came in at 83.3. (source)

The sharp drop comes as no surprise after weeks of turbulence in financial markets around the world. Yesterday brought difficult news about the housing sector.

From BusinessWeek, (Housing Starts: It's Going to Get Worse--Starts on new homes plummeted to a 10-year low in July, exceeding Wall Street's prediction by 25%), August 16:

"On Aug. 15, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index had declined two points in August to 22, its lowest level since January, 1991—which also happens to be the worst month for housing starts in history. Derived from a monthly survey, the index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months."

In a consumer driven and consumer spending centered economy, this is bad news. The conventional wisdom holds that new housing stimulates retail spending by consumers who need stuff to put in their houses. And bigger houses mean even more stuff.
But when is enough, enough?

Consumer spending has accounted for more than two thirds of economic activity. A significant portion of this has been debt driven. How ironic that prudent financial behavior on the part of consumers (spending within their means) is seen as harmful to our economy.

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Who said that? A neighbor to the north! In an article today at Canada.com, Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets (although he didn't attribute the quote to a person or context). His point was to reassure Canadians that they were relatively sheltered from economic turmoil south of the border. He was quoting F.D.R.

What F.D.R. did say in his first inaugural address March 4, 1933 was:

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

That was then; this is now.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Michigan's July Jobless Rate, Still 7.2%

According to Michigan's Department of Labor and Economic Growth, Michigan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged from June at 7.2%. Is this good news?

Interesting facts from the DLEG press release:

  • July's manufacturing decline was the most pronounced monthly drop in 2007.
  • Construction registered its fifth consecutive monthly employment decline in July. From February to July, this sector has shown a decrease of 13,000 jobs.
  • July marked the largest monthly decrease in statewide payroll jobs since January, and July's total jobs count was the lowest for thus far in 2007.
  • Since July 2006, education and health services was the only major industry sector in Michigan to show significant job growth (+10,000).
The national unemployment rate remained steady up a tenth of a percent to 4.6%

August Consumer Confidence Index--Preparing for the Preliminary Number Friday

In just two days, the mid-month preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released for August. July saw an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, but August will surely be lower. In the last few weeks, financial markets have grown highly volatile due to the subprime mortgage lending crisis in the United States.

Why does this matter to consumer confidence? Because consumers have been tapping their inflated home equity as though it is a personal ATM. Trouble is, it isn't real equity until you have paid off your mortgage. Some in the financial world might disagree with that statement. In truth, consumers were lulled into thinking residential real estate values would continue to rise with no end in sight.

And so tapping that "purchasing power" seemed to make sense. Some people did it to pay for luxuries, others for necessities. Indeed, after 9-11 consumers were urged to shop as a patriotic act. Imagine that, reckless spending as patriotic duty. Kind of resembles the attitude toward the actual cost of the war in Iraq.

Now, many "homeowners" are actually in negative territory--owing more than their properties are worth and locked into loan agreements with interest rates that will reset higher than they can afford. And this in a historically low interest rate environment.

But these really bad loans were made because the mortgage industry has shifted from the bailiwick of depository institutions (banks, credit unions and savings and loans) to the mercurial world of non-depository lenders. Since the 1980s most regulation of mortgages has been gutted. In plain speak, mortgages became securitized--fodder for big deals on Wall Street. Local non-depository lenders and brokers had no incentive to make prudent loans; bigger was better. More was better. In this go-go environment local accountability took a back seat to closing the deal at any cost.

As the subprime mortgage debacle continues rattling global markets, credit will tighten, property values will continue to decline, foreclosures will increase and the impact will reach the sectors that sell to home owners--places like La-Z-Boy and Home Depot.

Consumer confidence? If it remains high, the folks surveyed are either in excellent financial shape or deep denial.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Pierogi in Detroit Today

Sweetest Heart of Mary , founded in 1889, is the oldest continuously operating Polish Roman Catholic Church in Detroit. Don't miss the 25th Annual Polish Pierogi Festival. Stop by and enjoy chicken dinners, pierogi, a cash bar, games, prizes, raffles and great music by the Kielbasa Kings and Misty Blues. Pray, eat, drink and dance.
12 p.m.--9 p.m.
Russell Street and Canfield.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Subprime in Michigan: New Best Practices From OFIS

Defaults on subprime mortgages in the United States are at the heart of a global credit and finance crisis that has been rattling international markets for weeks. Today the BostonHerald reports that "France’s largest bank, BNP Paribas SA, announced that it was freezing about $2.2 billion worth of funds, citing the deteriorating subprime loan market in the U.S."

Subprime-backed hedge funds are all about repackaging really bad loans as a great investment opportunity--passing the buck or tossing the hot potato for profit.

As the U.S. housing bubble continues to pop, Michigan ranks fifth for foreclosures-- caught in the perfect storm of huge manufacturing job losses, subprime mortgages, unprecedented consumer debt, questionable mortgage lending practices and little regulation of the entire financial sector.

The Michigan Office of Financial and Insurance Services has issued regulatory best practices for mortgage originators that market and sell adjustable-rate mortgage products to subprime borrowers. (press release)

Michigan's OFIS has a big job--regulating HMOs, banks, domestic insurance companies, investment advisors, securities broker-dealers, consumer finance lenders, insurance agents and securities agents. It's a tough job, but someone has to try.

Since1981 the number of mortgage companies in Michigan has gone from zero to approximately 3,200.

And what are these best practices for subprime mortgage lending? You won't find a summary in the press release, but you can wade through the "regulatory guidance" yourself.

The document assumes subprime lending will continue.

The OFIS statement contains many shoulds, but not a single "must." These are not rules that must be followed. They are prudent measures that, if implemented, could spare a lot of consumers a lot of pain. Given the unfolding global financial news, they seem too little too late.

Offering risky ARM products to high risk borrowers might be immoral, but it isn't yet illegal.

Until federal government regulations or a global credit freeze stop non-depository lenders from making bad loans, caveat emptor.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Gov. Milliken, My New Favorite Republican

William Milliken is my new favorite republican. Once upon a time, long ago and right here, a republican governor signed revolutionary environmental protection legislation--fitting in a state with a motto boasting its natural resources. Passed in 1970, Michigan's Environmental Protection Act set an ambitious standard recognizing the right of anyone to sue over damage to the water, air or land. It was recognition of the commons--the resources we share as citizens--and our rights and responsibility to protect them. But the state Supreme Court on July 25th decided to negate that legislative intent.

Quoted in the Muskegon Chronicle, Milliken said:

"It was clearly the intent of the Legislature and clearly my intent when I signed that bill that any citizen would have the right to sue."

"They (the Supreme Court) have so narrowed down the ability of a person to bring a lawsuit, it has negated the intent of the Legislature."

How clear can you be? There it is laid out plain as 1+1=2. I'm no lawyer, but I thought legislative intent mattered in the Court.

According to the Chronicle, the majority said that the word "anyone" violated the U.S. Constitution. Chief Justice Taylor said that the U.S. Constitution only allows parties directly harmed to sue. Agreeing with him--justices Corrigan, Young, and Markman; dissenting Cavanaugh, Kelly, Weaver.

I'm seeking a pleasant peninsula, but according to this Court my right to sue is determined by my property ownership. So, my ability to advocate for environmental stewardship in the courts is restricted by location of my property lines or maybe the easement. Are property owners really the only citizens who can be directly harmed by significant environmental changes brought about by industrial activity? Of course not. All of us have a right to clean air, water and land. And all of us have the responsibility to protect what makes Pure Michigan.

Governor Milliken and the legislature said so. And that's good enough for me.

Blogging For Michigan, Not Against It

Coverage of the Senate blog blocking has widened.
Battle Creek Enquirer
WOODTV, Grand Rapids
Michigan Technology News
Red Tape Blog (geared to government documents librarians in Michigan)

In a partisan world there are us and them. It's quite binary like the ones and zeros that make cyberspace possible. Thumbs up or thumbs down. Boys on the bus and the rest of us slobs.

On election day, winner and losers. The blocking of Blogging for Michigan looks partisan. And that's a shame for the state of political discourse, policy making, public trust and transparency in Michigan government.

Now, of all times, we must come together for the sake of our state's future. Diverse opinion represents constituents' opinions. Legislators represent all their constituents not just the ones they agree with. Mature governing can tolerate, integrate and synthesize different perspectives into policy outcomes that move us forward. There's politics and then there's governing. Right now Michigan needs far less of the former and a vast helping of the latter.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Blocking Political Blogs in the Michigan Senate

If you have children and internet access, you've probably worried about inappropriate content making its way onto the screen and into their impressionable minds. You may even use filters to keep your kids safe and protect their innocence. This week, while many liberal bloggers were in Chicago at the Yearly Kos Convention, Sen. Mike Bishop's chief of staff decided to protect employees from something called Blogging For Michigan, self described as "a managed progressive community." BFM's core contributors write "the purpose of this community is to provide news and commentary on issues that affect the people of Michigan. BFM believes strongly in the value of the Michigan progressive blogosphere and is committed to supporting high quality citizen journalism."

Several blogs have remarked on the situation. Check Among the Trees, Daily Kos, Michigan Liberal, The Conservative Media. And Senate Minority Leader, Mark Schauer weighed in at BFM.

After shaking off the initial outrage at what looks and smells like censorship, we can welcome this opportunity to consider the impacts, roles, and uses of blogs in the political realm. Blogs are as diverse as the people and groups who create them. Most have a point of view. Many are partisan. A large number make no contribution to civility in discourse and give shelter to the lesser angels of our nature, hidden with cyber identities. Some are even funded and promoted to disseminate disinformation. But, many blogs are the work of people who would otherwise not have access to the "conversation" for lack of wealth, social station, or celebrity. They are not now and never will be members of the club. A blogger needn't even own a computer to have an impact or share an idea, since many public libraries provide internet access.

Should blogs be considered part of the media or journalistic outlets? Some, definitely should. Bloggers keep the mainstream media on their toes by digging a little deeper, asking the next question, and breaking important stories. You cannot generalize about the skills, experience and intelligence of bloggers. You cannot categorically dismiss their research and writing. Some are outstanding writers and thinkers.

Should access to certain blogs be blocked in government offices? This depends on your understanding of the First Amendment. Are you concerned about Freedom of Speech or Freedom of the Press or both? Are the blogs you block political speech written by partisans or members of the press or a bit of both? And, in the absence of consensus around blogs as press, things are likely to get messier. Try this thought experiment: if you were sitting in your Senate office and political pamphlets contrary to your perspective started blowing in through the window would you close the window? If you closed the window and they stuck to it still readable what would you do?

Sen. Bishop's chief of staff said he blocked access to BFM because employees were accessing it too much and not doing their work on behalf of constituents. Couldn't he just have a conversation with the employees in question and advise them to get back to work instead of restricting access from all state Senate computers? And what about the state Senators who do want to read BFM at work?

to be continued...

Saturday, August 4, 2007

John Edwards' Object Lesson--Don't Bite Murdoch's Hand

Big money shapes electoral politics. Big media shapes opinion, frames debate, and secures the perimeter of public consciousness. Big money owns big media.

For example, News Corporation and its subsidiaries own Harper Collins, Zondervan, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, 20th Century Fox, the Weekly Standard, Fox News Channel, and TV Guide, to name just a few of its prized gems.

If you want to take down a serious candidate and you own lots of media, you are golden.

John Edwards recently called on fellow democratic presidential candidates to refuse donations from News Corporation owner, Rupert Murdoch. He also criticized Murdoch's purchase of the Wall Street Journal. But then Edwards was attacked as hypocritical by FoxNews.com and the New York Post for accepting a book advance from Harper Collins (three entities owned by Murdoch's News Corporation). The New York Post today published Edwards Refuses to Return His Rupees, a piece that quotes blogger, Roger L. Simon:

"Bloggers, meanwhile, threw the book at him yesterday, searing him as a hypocritical fraud.

"We need a new, more extreme version of the word hypocrite for Edwards," wrote blogger Roger Simon, noting Edwards' penchant for $400 haircuts and the 28,000-square-foot mansion the former senator built for himself while running a class-warfare campaign.

"People like Edwards are more than just fakes - they are actually dangerous," Simon added. "Everything is about Edwards and his glory. It's not about anything else."


Edwards secured a book deal with Harper Collins and accepted a $500,000 advance and $300,000 for expenses. Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz said the candidate "did not receive one penny from this book. All of his proceeds went to charities, like Habitat for Humanity and the College for Everyone program." (source)

Nonetheless, the money came from a source connected to Rupert Murdoch and the presumption is that Edwards should have known better than to criticize fellow candidates for taking money from Murdoch while accepting a book deal from a firm connected in any way with Murdoch.

A rookie mistake or a set up? Maybe both. Now Edwards is catching even more heat for hypocrisy than after the overpriced haircut incident. And he will have to spend precious time explaining himself rather than promoting his policy positions. Very unfortunate for him, but even more so for the quality of political discourse this week.

Friday, August 3, 2007

U.S. House Moves to Allow Prescription Imports

If you live near the Canadian border and experience a financial burden from expensive pharmaceuticals, this is great news.

The measure was included in H.R. 3161, which the President already said he would veto on the basis of cost.

The Globe and Mail reports today that the President will veto the bill, which passed by a 237 to 18 vote. The statement from the administration expresses concern over consumer safety.
Curiously, the same bill bans import of meat and poultry grown or processed in China, but according to Reuters:
The White House said China's poultry inspection system "is equivalent to the system in the United States."
One hopes it is at least better than China's toy inspection system or pet food inspection system.

Michigan's own Mike Rogers is quoted in the Globe and Mail piece:
“I understand the intention to lower drug prices to the seniors, that is critically important,” said Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich. “What we're doing is throwing open the gates to every [drug] counterfeiter in the world.”
Supporters of the legislation want to provide consumers access to affordable medication. The pharmaceutical industry tried to block the measure.
No surprises really.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Michigan's Political Blogosphere--a Very, Very Brief Visitors' Guide

Bloggers have arrived. They are gaining credibility and attracting ire. Clearly, they are changing the journalistic, political and electoral landscape.

Editor and Publisher reports that "bloggers making Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to the CIA will likely get them processed for free under new rules that broaden the definition of who is part of the 'news media.'"

All democratic presidential candidates will make appearances at the Yearly Kos Conference, for liberal and antiwar bloggers, in Chicago this weekend.

Monday, conservative talker, Bill O'Reilly blasted the Daily Kos as a hate site on par with the Klan in an effort to discourage dems from attending the Chicago conference.

Michigan has a diverse and thriving political blogosphere. Consider this an introductory visitors' guide to the virtual landscape.

Liberal Community Sites
Michigan Liberal, the foremost liberal social blog with a relatively open culture. While open to anyone who espouses liberal/progressive values, many participants are democrats.

Blogging for Michigan, a relatively new site, is a "managed progressive community" providing news and commentary, while aiming for high standards of citizen journalism. This isn't a progressive soap box. Moderators expect writers to do some leg work in crafting posts.

Conservative
Michigan GOP (That's Saul, folks!)
While the name is whimsical and inviting, reader comments are not allowed. Saul Anuzis, state party chair, drafts the daily posts. Other bloggers listed as contributors include Michigan Republican Party staff--Jeff Timmer, Sarah Anderson, and Rob Macomber. Based on statistics from BlogNetNews/Michigan, some of the daily posts get a lot of external links.

Republican Michigander, based in Livingston County, is the work of two writers. Although identifying as republican, comments are welcomed without restriction and some interesting dialog can result. Republican Michigander's tone tends toward pragmatism and reasonableness with a clear point of view.

Media Critique
While media critique is central to blog culture, some blogs devote themselves to exposing skewed or inaccurate reporting, or underreported issues in the public interest.
Media Mouse, based in Grand Rapids, "is an independent media group that formed in 1999 in response to the corporate media's unwillingness to cover movements for social change and a recognition of the need for more independent perspectives in Grand Rapids."

Comprehensive Directory
Absolute Michigan's Michigan Blog has an extensive list of all sorts of blogs based in Michigan. You could spend hours exploring.

Issue Oriented
These run the gamut and tend to be hosted by individuals and nonprofit organizations with an interest in specific policy and political outcomes. Here is a small sample.
Right to Life of Michigan's Blog
Republic of M, Gay Michigan
Great Lakes Guy
Michigan Nonprofit Association's Blog
AutoblogGreen
Michigan Library Consortium Blog

As you travel, be sure to explore the blogrolls in the sidebars. You'll be amazed what's out there. You might even want to start your own blog. Enjoy your journey!

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Granholm Featured in WaPo OpEd Column Today

See E.J. Dionne Jr.--Who's for Big Government

His point is that even though the big government versus small government rhetoric abounds at the state level, conservatives are willing to support big government programs if their constituents will benefit.
"Could there be any more of a big-government endeavor than the invasion of Iraq, pursued by a president from the party of small government? Do the domestic spying programs have anything to do with a small-government agenda?"
Well, no.

And there is always the farm bill.
"In the meantime, the coalition against excessive government entanglement in the farm economy crisscrossed all ideological boundaries, running from Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) to Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) to Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.).

Kind's amendment to reform the farm program attracted an admirable band of supporters, including some of the most liberal and most conservative members of the House. Yet it was overwhelmingly voted down because a slew of farm-state conservatives uncharacteristically joined the Democratic leadership in opposing it.

Rep. Robert Goodlatte (R-Va.) said Kind's proposal "rips out the safety net for American farmers and ranchers." At last: a safety net many conservatives love. Democratic leaders, for their part, opposed Kind because they wanted an electoral safety net for their vulnerable members from farming districts."
Interesting, common ground among the very liberal and the very conservative.

Finally, to Granholm. On the issue of government provided health care, Granholm says that business leaders recognize such programs give competitive advantage to manufacturers in other countries.
"Shrewd industrialists who love the free-enterprise system have noticed how 'countries that have big-government health care' are at a competitive advantage, Granholm said in a telephone interview, and 'they're asking government to help them out.'"
Granholm also speaks to changing sentencing guidelines, as a way to help with budget woes.

Sadly, our partisan bickering and posturing over the budget and taxes has attracted national attention.
"Posturing on taxes will probably continue until very close to Michigan's fall budget deadline. But because the trade-offs between taxes and spending are clear, politicians can't afford to be too rhetorical."

All eyes are on you, Michigan legislature.

Finally, Granholm advocates investing in people through education and healthcare for the sake of our economy.
"Granholm argues that the United States is 'never going to be the cheapest place to do business,' in part because of its high labor and environmental standards relative to many of the emerging economies. She suggests that improving the country's competitive position will require 'investing in education, higher education and health care.'"
Right, we have standards for goodness sake! Let's not abandon standards that support a clean environment or educated citizens or fairly compensated workers. Sure, ditching those costly policies and regulations has seduced vast numbers of manufacturers to move abroad. After all, shareholders want better returns on investment and nobody likes a bear market.

Making commitments to invest in people will require a longterm perspective--a stretch for those focused on quarterly profits or election cycles.