As proactive as Herbert Hoover?

In a move that makes President Herbert Hoover look proactive, the Bush administration is taking action to deal with the credit crisis.

From the New York Times:

"After months of watching a growing credit crisis made worse by steadily eroding home prices, the Bush administration responded on Thursday with the outlines of a plan that officials emphasized is meant more to prevent future crises than to address the current one."

You go, boy.

American Axle strike -- wide reaching, persistent, and ineffective

Although the American Axle strike has persisted into a third week and has shutdown or slowed 29 GM plants, it is not yet effective. GM has about 100 days of truck inventory and can watch from the sidelines, without intervening or tampering or nudging the UAW/American Axle talks toward closure.

GM expected truck sales to slow this year and the strike is almost doing them a favor. The company can cease production of vehicles that it can't sell anyway and can point to the action of the UAW as the cause for shutdown. It's an elegant solution for GM, as it shrugs and says "oh well."

Some have said that dealers will be the first to feel real pressure as their inventory offerings become limited. Yet, Ford and Chrysler are looking at ways to reduce the number of dealers in their pipeline. Could this be part of the GM plan as well?

The market for domestic vehicles will continue to shrink, according to the Center for Automotive Research, over the next five years. The whole system will need to shrink accordingly from parts suppliers to assembly to dealers.

So it begins, with the bold effort of the UAW at American Axle. Conventional wisdom would see that stopping production of axles would stop production of vehicles. In another day and age that would have put the UAW in a position of strength -- no axles, no cars and trucks. Now, it seems the UAW is just helping GM manage inventory.

Let's hope the American Axle workers are not striking in vain or shooting themselves in the foot.

A Mulligan primary in Michigan

Yes, Michigan voters teed off in January on about the third hole. It was imperfect to say the least, but it was our shot -- a statewide open primary early in the schedule.

On the Democratic side with no presidential candidates campaigning (except for Kucinich), a mysterious candidate named "Uncommitted" on the ballot, and disqualified delegates, it was weird. But it was our primary, damn it, and many made best of it. Voters sent a message to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), "Delegates or no delegates, Michigan Democrats will vote and be counted."

Now, it seems Michigan Dems might tee up and swing again. There is talk of the Michigan Democratic Party caucusing anew. Just like a Mulligan, it'll be as if that first bizarre exercise in democracy never happened. (Except it did.)

The first shot was a total embarrassment, off into the woods, lost ball, penalties. What will this be? Michigan Democrats went out and voted to the best of their ability choosing Clinton or Kucinich or "Uncommitted" where appropriate. Of course, being an open primary, people besides Democrats went out and voted "Uncommitted," too.

For additional cost, Michigan Democrats could try again to get it right and have their delegates selected and seated all fair and square, according to the rules of the party. Those who favor Obama could chose him rather than "Uncommitted" in a do-over. This would be like hitting the sweet spot of an over-sized driver. With muscles warmed up, good pace on the stoke and desire reach the green, this shot could fly far.

The fun of a Mulligan on the golf course is that it's a willful breaking of the rules to create a better outcome in a game. That almost sounds like the Michigan Dems approach to the early primary date, except it wasn't a game. Ironically, the do-over primary represents a second chance at compliance with the rules for a better outcome.

It's important to play by the rules, but sometimes it's fun to bend them. Hillary Clinton likes to remind voters about playing by the rules, yet some think she broke them by keeping her name on the Michigan primary ballot even as the rest of the candidates withdrew. Social order, and in this case party discipline, depends on everyone following the rules to maintain the system.

Breaking the rules led to all Michigan's Democratic delegates being disqualified. The DNC disciplined the state Democratic party because this isn't a game. So simple a concept even a five-year-old could understand: "Billy, if you break the rules, you won't get to attend the big summertime party with your friends. No party hats, balloons and noisemakers for you."

The DNC will let Michigan Dems have a do-over if it complies with the rules and if they pay for it themselves. It would be like a charity tournament where players can buy Mulligans for a good cause. You make a bad shot, you pay for a second chance.

This time it'll cost a lot, though -- maybe $10 million. Heck of a greens fee! Gov. Granholm says the state will not cover the expense of a do-over. Thank goodness. It is, after all, a party matter at this point and the financially stressed state can hardly afford it. But can the Michigan Democratic Party afford it?

What do you say, Michigan Democrats?

A brokered convention will not be a disaster

The battle for Pennsylvania has begun. Hillary Clinton can win that state. And why shouldn't she? This thing is far from over.

Some observers of Democratic Party politics are calling for Clinton to concede, because they say she cannot possibly get enough delegates to beat Obama. They say super delegates are just party bosses who will override the will of the voters. But this is an oversimplification of the process.

The will of the voters is not a monolithic sentiment. The primary system varies from state to state -- open, closed, semi-closed primaries and caucuses. It's apples and oranges and bananas, a cornucopia of circumstances that select delegates. Horse trading happens early on with endorsements and campaign appearances.

In addition, this is a close race; it is still a contest. The will of the voters who have voted is pretty closely split between Clinton and Obama. Choosing the winner affirms the will of a little more than half the voters. The other half, no matter who is chosen, are not affirmed and honored. They lose.

But then they can all reunite in support of the chosen candidate.

If things get ugly in the next few weeks, will supporters of the loser ditch the party in disgust and will this reflect poorly on the Democratic Party? Sure (to the first question), if they were independents who liked a particular candidate, but had no intention of getting involved in party politics. No ( to the second question). Why should good healthy conflict within the Democratic Party look bad? A lack of conflict would make it look like the GOP and frankly, that united front can seem eerie.

There will be a marked difference in the tenor of the conventions. The GOP, all in a row behind McCain can gather for an awesome pep rally and strategy session. If you're into that sort of thing, it will probably be a gas. The Dems, diverse and idealistic, can gather for a consensus building exercise in intergroup relations. Not as much fun as the GOP gathering, and for some too much like their day job.

If the super delegates choose the candidate who didn't win the so-called popular vote will the Dems look undemocratic? That depends on how the speeches go and what the process looks like. Because if there is a process with oratory, persuasion, principles and ideas, it could be a wonderful opportunity for the Dems to shine before the entire country. A dynamic exchange of ideas, a little horse trading, some good music and renewed cohesion could energize the party with the truly big tent.

A brokered convention would be historic. It doesn't have to be a disaster.

She's still in it! Clinton wins Texas and Ohio

With the exception of freethinking, woodsy Vermont, Clinton carried all states voting in yesterday's mini-super Tuesday -- she's still in it. Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island gave Clinton's campaign a shot of fuel when it was running on fumes.

If Ohio is the bell weather state for elections, race will be a factor in November. In the hilly southern counties that border Kentucky and West Virginia, Clinton won in the 70 to 77 percent range. Was there crossover voting? Not likely. Clinton scored well in blue collar areas and among church goers. According to CNN exit polls, Ohio voters thought Clinton more likely to win in November.

Stabenow and Levin bring home the bacon for foreclosure prevention

Good news, although late in the game -- Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Carl Levin announced that Southwest Solutions of Detroit will receive $315,652 to provide mortgage foreclosure mitigation assistance to families in need.

From their press release:

These grants are being awarded as part of the National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling program, which is administered by the NeighborWorks America. NeighborWorks America is directed under the FY 2008 Consolidated Appropriations Act to allocate grant funding to qualifying organizations that provide mortgage foreclosure mitigation assistance in states and areas with high rates of defaults and foreclosures primarily in the subprime housing market.

Will it help? Getting the money is just the first step. It will have to be administered wisely by
NeighborWorks is a "national nonprofit organization created by Congress to provide financial support, technical assistance, and training for community-based revitalization efforts."

Southwest Solutions received the Best Managed Nonprofit of 2005 greater than $3 million by Crain's Detroit Business.

Let them eat fish --- from France to the Great Lakes pollution taints food chain

cross posted at Michigan Messenger

Saturday's Guardian reported on pollution in France's Rhone river. Apparently, a string of governments has ignored a serious PCB problem for more than 20 years. And this is horrible because poor people have eaten the contaminated fish. Sound familiar, Great Lakes readers?

What sets France's problem in relief is the thought of a highly toxic river flowing through "tourist spots such as the papal city of Avignon down to the Camargue delta." Could this be part of our problem with cleanup in Michigan -- our history is too short and unremarkable to evoke cultural incredulity over environmental toxins?

It should be bad enough that carcinogens have entered the food chain in Saginaw where African-American families routinely eat carp and catfish -- fish that are categorically not to be eaten, according to consumption advisories from the state. Just as it should be bad enough that poor immigrants in Lyon's suburbs have been buying and eating toxic carp from the Rhone. Either of these situations should inspire public outrage, outreach to local communities and aggressive cleanup efforts. This isn't about inferior cuisine; this is about the basic human right to safe food and water.

Someone in France sipping Châteauneuf-du-Pape and noshing on langres really should care about toxic carp in the Rhone not because of the taint on the region's tourist industry or culinary reputation, but as a simple matter of environmental justice. Someone sipping Lake Michigan Cabernet with some aged Pinconning likewise should care about toxic carp in the Saginaw River for the sake of the poor families trying to supplement their diets with fresh fish, nature's bounty for the resourceful.

Michigan may not have a papal city or wine culture dating back to the time of Buddha's enlightenment to inspire environmental stewardship, but it has the Great Lakes. These lakes cradle a long and remarkable history marked in geologic time. The world's largest freshwater resource was formed 10,000 years ago, and predates wine and cheese and democracy and the Buddha.

These lakes have sustained human communities for thousands of years, yet are gravely threatened by human industry of the last 150 years. They define our regional culture and heritage. We continue to depend on them for our survival. Our health depends on their health. Can we find a way back to a clean environment? Perhaps we can if we understand our place in the long arc of geologic history.

Photo by: Liam Gumley, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2003

Big Three to offer deep discounts in 2008

As much as the Big Three have promised to end deep discounts to car buyers, they admit the need for such bait in 2008.

Over the last year and in explanations of restructuring, the Big Three have said deals to consumers will no longer play a role in marketing vehicles. But the economy is so weak and consumers so spooked, deals and discounts may make or break the industry this year.

Although all three promise restraint and strategic use of incentive programs, we'll have to see how this actually plays out during a national recession.

Chrysler procurement shakeup raises engineering concerns

Chrysler's vice president for procurement, John Campi, wants to trim costs by scaling back parts testing. But at least one of his engineers worries about the consequences.

Last week Campi told The Detroit Free Press that he has challenged the company's testing protocols, saying to engineers, "If I have a supplier that's building products for the automotive industry today, with companies that you know, I don't want to hear why it has to take six months to do your testing when in fact it is a quality product."

One Chrysler engineer familiar with supplier and parts issues, who spoke with Michigan Messenger on condition of anonymity, expressed concern at cutting corners on parts testing: "Chrysler can't go to Home Depot to get their bolts. We use an engineered product."

CEO Bob Nardelli took the reins of Chrysler after a stint as Home Depot's CEO. At Home Depot, Campi was Nardelli's senior vice president of vendor management.

The Chrysler engineer worries that cutting back on testing could risk lowering the reliability of Chrysler vehicles. He explained that although parts suppliers manufacture for multiple auto companies, parts are engineered to unique specifications and are not interchangeable from one carmaker's product to another. "A water pump is not just a water pump. It has to meet a set of specifications that are unique to Chrysler," he said. "The engine goes down if the water pump fails."

In addition, vendors can make mistakes and their production processes can be inconsistent. Testing parts "verifies that the vendor has made them in accordance with our specifications and that takes time."

Current testing protocols can take up to six months. Their purpose is to find bad parts and to prevent them from getting into vehicles. A bad part can stop the assembly line or lead to costly vehicle recalls. When bad parts make it into cars on the road, it can lead to accidents, and injuries or death. To fix the problem, the company must replace the part in stock in transit, stock at the plants, stock at the dealers and customers' cars on the road. "It's a nightmare," the engineer said.

According to the engineer, the current protocols are necessary to meet federal safety requirements, EPA requirements and customer satisfaction requirements. He said that to meet those requirements "means that every part is tested thoroughly."

Chrysler offers a lifetime guarantee on its power trains and up to 10-year guarantees on various other components. Testing assures the company can deliver what it promises customers. "How do you make that claim -- how do you stand behind the product -- when you don't know if it meets your requirements?" he asked.

Global management for supply chains

Noel Tichy, who has known Nardelli for more than 20 years and worked with him at GE, told Michigan Messenger, "Obviously, Bob wants to shake up everything and procurement is a big piece of putting cars together." Tichy currently serves as director of the Global Leadership Program and is a professor of Management and Organizations at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

Shaking up Chrysler has meant bringing new management into an industry that Tichy describes as very "inward looking" when it needs to become more global to survive. Of the Big Three, Chrysler is most heavily invested in North American production when that is proving untenable. The maker will have to go abroad to expand markets for its products and find cheaper parts production, as other carmakers have already done. But those foreign-made parts will still need to be tested to assure they meet North American market standards.

Acknowledging the fundamental difference between retail supply-chain management and automotive supply-chain management Tichy said, "The difference is you are manufacturing a product. At Home Depot, you're buying stuff to sell in a store." He added, "But you are still managing a supply chain with suppliers in China and all over the world." He says that is where automotive supply chains are headed -- China.

Defending the practice of moving management across diverse businesses, Tichy cited his time at GE with Nardelli, under former CEO Jack Welch. "We moved people around more SIC codes in business than anyone on the planet. Jet engines, power generation, appliances, NBC, GE Capital. There are absolutely generic skills that cut across industries." SIC codes, standard industry classification codes, are used in business and government to categorize types of industries.

As for Campi's move from retail to automotive manufacturing, Tichy said, "How much transfer of learning there is from retail to automotive, we'll find out." He added, "That is yet to be determined."

After the tent meeting -- my chat with Obama

(more fiction, a companion piece to "On the bus, limited access thwarts internet rabble")

Everyone had left the hall except the Secret Service and Obama, who lingered behind the podium. He was reviewing his notes and looking up at the balcony seats. It had been a spectacular rally -- a momentum builder.

"Excuse me, Senator Obama. Have you got a minute?"

"No, but I have hope, the hope that we can change America," he bellowed past me.

"I just need a moment," I said.

"Alright then, how can I help you?" he boomed from the podium, sending his words to the back of the hall.

"I really feel pessimistic about the 'change' meme. It's value neutral. Who gets to decide what our common values are? What if I don't like your version of 'change'," I asked him.

"Change in America will be a balm for the broken spirit, a turning of the tide, a reckoning of accounts," he bellowed. "It will be the moment we seek our better selves in service to the best we can become."

He paused. "And it will be hard," he told the empty balcony seats.

I approached the dais and with Obama's nod the Secret Service let me climb aboard the soapbox with the Senator. The view was grand, inspiring even. The sort of thing TV preachers seek to fill every Sunday. But Obama was managing it day after day, state after state.

"Senator, I respect your passion and your sincerity, but people can't eat hope or change," I said. "Hope doesn't prevent swindling mortgage brokers or outsourcing America's manufacturing base."

"Hope is like a tiny seed..."

"Hope doesn't feed hungry children whose parents have been unemployed for over a year," I said.

"I'm asking you to believe in your ability to bring forth change in Washington," he said slowly, gathering his papers and starting for the door.

"You know, you could talk specifics. Give a sense of how you will accomplish what," I said.

"I think when people are sufficiently inspired by my message, they will seek and find the details that support my vision and their hope for change," he said. "It's all on the website."

Shaking my hand, looking into my eyes, he repeated, "I am asking you to believe in your ability to bring forth change in Washington."

He descended the stage flanked by Secret Service and I was alone in the hall. His message was still echoing. Hope. Change. Believe. Change. Hope. A formula for stirring the masses of frustrated, fed-up voters of all ages, races, income levels. A recipe for electoral stone soup. Bring your agenda and drop it in the change-hope-believe pot. Cast your vote and maybe, come next year, things will be better.

Just believe.

Sure, but what about Michigan?

On the bus, limited access thwarts internet rabble

cross posted at Huffington Post
(FICTION)

Go ahead and kvetch, blogger. Though you are clever, well read, socially conscious with a generous progressive heart – even a talented writer – you lack access. And in this world, access matters. Ask Helen Thomas, she'll tell you. But if you lack access, why not try fiction? Political science fiction.

On my transcontinental flight with Hillary, we laughed a lot because we were exhausted and everything seemed funny. It was the laughter of relief. California had been grueling. Racial politics dressing as unity is always a stretch, but a must with campaign designers this season. When we finally took off eastbound from San Francisco, we could relax, sip some wine and be silly.

"How do you keep going?" I asked.
"I really want to be President," she said. "I want to help our country."

"So does Obama."

"And there is no reason we can't do that together," she said. "The primary is rough. No way around that."

"People are wrung out trying to follow this endless campaigning, you know."

"Join the club. I haven't spent two nights in the same town for months,"she said.

"It's like The Amazing Race meets Survivor. Reality politics for the writers' strike," I blurted. We laughed. "Who'll get voted off when the tribe gathers for convention?" she pondered with a twinkle in her eye.

"At least you don't have to eat bugs,"I said. "And there'll be two survivors on the ticket at convention." "But only one candidate for leader of the free world," she said, suddenly serious, looking past me to a glorious future.

"One candidate to go toe to toe with McCain," I reminded her. "The consummate survivor in real life, not reality politics."

"But this isn't survivor. This is about wanting to change the direction of our country. This is about saying 'no' to one hundred more years in Iraq. This is about saying 'yes' to quality education for all children. This is about making sure everyone has health coverage. This is about improving access to higher education. This is about repairing the damage of the last seven years," She was on a roll as the plane flew over Texas.

"Hey, after you get the nomination, when you come to Michigan, I'd really like to interview you," I said.
"Sure," she said.
"Excellent, thanks," I smiled. The joy of access.

My dog started barking, shrieking as the newspaper man hurled today's Wall Street Journal up the driveway.
It was all just a dream. Thank goodness for fiction.

Detroit Winter Blast Tonight!

UPDATE: (this text appeared at Michigan Messenger Sunday, February 10)
The Winter Blast festival in downtown Detroit brings people together for play at Campus Martius Park just in the nick of time.

The renewal of our lives comes in the doing of small things, not pondering our smallness among enormous things. And that is why Detroit Winter Blast is so important. The collective effort of several dozen sponsors, Winter Blast comforts Michiganders in our bleak midwinter. After weeks of a flat gray sky, days of city scandal, months of economic stagnation, the festival lifts people in little, life-saving ways.

Friday night, in toasty music-filled tents, homeless folks warmed themselves alongside the well-heeled. Working-class and white-collar together drank beer after a long work week and listened to a tight three-man blues band. Outside, wood-stoked fires drew revelers roasting marshmallows and watching skaters.

On a rink under colorful and shifting lights, nimble and tipsy, alone and together, people skated to soul, rock, Motown and R&B. A swirl of Detroit's diversity -- young girls in head scarves, boys in baggy everything, men in NASCAR jackets, a woman wrapped in a crocheted afghan, little ones overstuffed in snowsuits -- circled in haphazard accord on the ice.

In the distance, shrieks of joyful terror from the snow slide and a musher's calls to her sled dogs.

The three-day festival of skating, snowshoeing, food, music, and sled dogs concluded Sunday.

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After days of no sun, weeks of a text message scandal, months of economic slump, you can get relief at the Detroit Winter Blast. Live music, skating, great food, bon fires, a snow slide, sled dogs, and more. Go and enjoy.